“妈妈洗碗摔盘子”说法全互联网是我第一个提出的，看时间线：去年5月18日我就写了这个回答。其他类似皆属抄袭或是独立起源。

不过随便抄袭了，请。

其实很多类似问题，包括什么姓胡的少年走失，你要这样想就通了：没有下文，本身也是一种下文。就像人没有个性，本身也是一种个性。

如果是美国人的错，一定有人会跳出来骂的；甚至只要美国人稍有嫌疑或是无法自证，都会有人去骂。

所以，波音虽然三天两头掉飞机或是俯冲轰炸机附体自动往下俯冲，但这次应该不是波音的问题了，连嫌疑都没有。

我当时被这个新闻吓坏了，不是因为承受力差，是我看到这个新闻的时候，正在拉斯维加斯回湾区的航班上，看到飞机俯冲下来的视频，我本能地抓紧了安全带。

愿飞行员健康、开心、长命百岁、富贵。

国内把黑匣子送给美国调查，然后再拿回来。

后来华尔街日报说，据内部消息，失事是人为原因。

然后国内辟谣，当时是这么辟的：我们问询了美国的调查机构，他们证实他们没有透漏消息给媒体…

= = = = 二更 = = = =

谢赞，找来了当时新闻截图，华日是华尔街日报的简称。

然后，评论区好像放出来了诶。

首先声明，我只知道西航什么可能。东航什么可能我不知道，一切以官方的消息为准，任何谣言必受法律制裁。

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西航坠毁之后几个小时我就看到新闻，并且开始追踪消息。很快有人发出某个网站西航飞机高度图表，显示垂直坠毁，中间有一两次拉回。

其实只要这是真的，就非常简单了，根本就不离奇，而且一秒钟可以想明白，只要你不乱去相信官方引导，以及看过几期空中浩劫。

飞机垂直坠毁只有两种可能，机械故障、人为操作。这是飞机坠毁不到4个小时我就能给出的推断。

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机械故障基本不是 安定面锁死 就是 飞机解体 了。其它大部分的机械故障不会导致垂直坠毁，哪怕两个发动机同时炸了只要机翼还在都不会这样。

某个矿场监控拍到坠毁过程，可以通过画面确定飞机垂直坠毁，没有死亡螺旋，加上目测观察飞机形态完整，大概率是没有解体，排除。

安定面锁死历史上有一次是螺丝螺纹给磨没了，之后直接锁死了飞行员无法控制。如果这个问题坠毁之后找到残骸很快就能确认，而且西方航空不是什么廉价航空，维护不会存在这种严重问题。至于质量问题以及其它机械故障的话，考虑 展廊外交 再加 (616 即将推出，就算官方报告没有那么快出，也会走漏风声暗示波音飞机不行进行反制。而且航空事故调查飞机制造商、飞机制造国都会参与，如果真有机械故障或者设计缺陷这个机型早就全世界范围内停飞检查。以上情况没有发生，排除。

当你排除一切不可能的，剩下的即使是再不可能，那也就是真相。

唯一可能就是人为操作。至今没有甩锅恐怖分子、敌对势力，结合空难之后马上抓捕造谣ZS网友、马上对飞行员心理辅导、马上对遇难者进行赔偿、黑匣子送去美国检测后美媒报道内部人士透露飞机没有问题人为俯冲，以及后来我在航空公司认识的人透露消息。100%就是ZS。

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总结：西方航空事故100%是飞行员ZS。但最可悲的其实是，一个害怕坐飞机而去看很多相关内容的业余爱好者，四个小时就能确定大概方向，一两个月就能基本锁定唯一可能，但是全网自从事故发生一个月根据国际规定必须公布初期报告后，似乎已经不再关心这件事情。

（欢迎截图、收藏保存，到时打我的脸。）

也许，拖着拖着就淡忘了，正是人家要的效果。

家属发声被网暴，被迫写致歉信。

家属不发声，就是定向沉默，国家不让说。

反正话都被你们说完了。

还说什么呢？

反思呗。

截图自中文维基百科，真实性本人不做任何评价。（评价是有的，但不说）

ps：根据规定，调查组需要在一周年纪念日前向国际民航组织提交调查报告。

别着急，如果相关单位遵守国际民航组织相关规定。下个月可能就可以看见最终调查报告，就算没有最终调查报告，也应公布调查进展报告

因为根据国际民航组织ICAO规定

1. 负责调查的国家必须在事故发生之日起30天内向国际民航组织提交一份初步报告。可自行决定初步报告是保密还是公开
2. 负责调查的国家应尽可能在12个月以内公布最终调查报告
3. 如果无法在12个月内发布最终调查报告，应在事故发生的每个周年日公布一份临时声明，详细说明调查的进展和提出的任何安全问题

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可以看看德国之翼4U9525调查时间线

• 2015年3月24日空难发生
• 2015年3月24日CVR被发现
• 2015年3月25日CVR被移交给相关部门进行读取
• 2015年3月27日EASA发布了一份关于驾驶舱内授权人员的安全信息公告
• 2015年3月28日FDR被发现
• 2015年4月2日FDR被移交给相关部门进行读取
• 2015年5月6日法国民航安全调查分析局(BEA)发布初步调查报告

4U9525号班机空难初步调查报告结论：在巡航阶段，副驾驶独自一人在驾驶舱内。然后他故意修改了自动驾驶指令，控制飞机下降，直到飞机与地面相撞。

此初步调查报告内容以基本判定了事故发生的原因，前前后后也就一个多月的时间

而MU5735空难并没有公开调查报告，只是发了一个“调查初步报告的情况通报”，当然这符合国际民航组织“可自行决定初步报告是保密还是公开”的规定，不过最终调查报告可是必须得公开的哦，所以等下一个月吧

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附赠国际民航组织关于事故调查部分的相关文件中的描述

Article 26 of the Convention on International Civil Aviation (Chicago Convention) states that, in the event of an accident to an aircraft of a Contracting State occurring in another Contracting State, and involving either death, serious injury, or serious technical defect in the aircraft or air navigation facilities, the State in which the accident occurs will institute an inquiry into the circumstances of the accident.
Annex 13 (Aircraft Accident and Incident Investigation) to the Convention provides further international requirements for the investigation of aircraft accidents and incidents. It spells out which States may participate in an investigation, such as the States of Occurrence, Registry, Operator, Design and Manufacture. It also defines the rights and responsibilities of such States.

The State of Occurrence may delegate all or part of the investigation to another State or a regional accident and incident investigation organization, and may call on the best technical expertise available from any source to assist with the investigation. States of Registry, Operator, Design and Manufacture who participate in an investigation are entitled to appoint an accredited representative (with or without associated advisers) to take part in the investigation.

A State which has a special interest in an accident, by virtue of fatalities or serious injuries to its citizens for instance, is entitled to appoint an expert entitled to: visit the scene of the accident; have access to the relevant factual information which is approved for public release by the State conducting the investigation, and information on the progress of the investigation; receive a copy of the accident investigation Final Report. ICAO officials only participate in accident investigations upon special request from the State responsible for conducting the investigation.

How are Annex 13 accident investigations reported?

States in charge of an investigation must submit a Preliminary Report to ICAO within thirty days of the date of the accident, unless the Accident/Incident Data Report has been sent by that time. Preliminary Reports may be marked as confidential or remain public at the investigating State’s discretion.

The State conducting the investigation of an accident or incident shall also make the Final Report publicly available as soon as possible and, if possible, within twelve months. If the report cannot be made publicly available within twelve months, the State conducting the investigation shall make an interim statement publicly available on each anniversary of the occurrence – detailing the progress of the investigation and any safety issues raised. For accidents or incidents involving an aircraft of a maximum mass over 5 700 kg, States in charge of an Annex 13 investigation must make the Final Report available to ICAO.

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附赠德国之翼4U952空难初步调查报告“INITIAL FINDINGS”和“THE ONGOING SAFETY INVESTIGATION”部分

2. INITIAL FINDINGS

On the basis of the initial facts gathered during the investigation, the following findings have been made:

The aeroplane had a valid Certificate of Airworthiness.

• The aeroplane’s maintenance documentation did not mention any system failures that were incompatible with the flight as planned.
• The flight crew possessed the licences and ratings required to perform the flight.
• The co-pilot obtained his class 1 medical certificate without restrictions in April 2008, valid for one year.
• An episode of depression and the taking of medication to treat it delayed the renewal of the copilot’s class 1 medical certificate between April and July 2009.
• From July 2009, the co-pilot’s medical certificate was endorsed with the note ‘‘Note the special conditions/restrictions of the waiver FRA 091/09 -REV-’’. His pilot’s licence had been endorsed with the note ‘‘***SIC**incl. PPL***’’.
• The Captain’s and co-pilot’s training files show that their professional level was above standard.
• The aeroplane took off from Barcelona bound for Düsseldorf on 24 March 2015 at 9 h 00, with flight number 4U9525, and callsign GWI18G.
• The autopilot and autothrust were engaged during the climb.
• The Captain left the cockpit at the beginning of the cruise at FL380.
• The selected altitude changed from 38,000 ft to 100 ft while the co-pilot was alone in the cockpit. The aeroplane then started a continuous and controlled descent on autopilot.
• Several altitude selections towards 100 ft were recorded during descent on the flight that preceded the accident flight, while the co-pilot was alone in the cockpit.
• During the descent of the accident flight, the Marseille control centre called the flight crew on eleven occasions on three different frequencies, without any answer being transmitted.
• The French military defence system tried to contact flight GWI18G on three occasions during the descent, without any answer.
• The buzzer to request access to the cockpit sounded once during the descent, 4 min 7 s after the Captain had left.
• The interphone sounded in the cockpit, 4 min 40 s after the Captain had lef.
• Three other calls on the interphone sounded in the cockpit.
• None of the calls using the interphone elicited any answer.
• An input on the right sidestick was recorded for about 30 seconds on the FDR 1 min 33 s before the impact, not enough to disengage the autopilot.
• The autopilot and autothrust remained engaged until the end of the CVR and the FDR recordings.
• The sound of breathing was recorded on the CVR until a few seconds before the end of the flight.
• Before the collision with the terrain, warnings from the GPWS, Master Caution and Master Warning sounded.
• The aeroplane collided with the terrain at 9 h 41 min 06.

3. THE ONGOING SAFETY INVESTIGATION

The initial information from the investigation shows that, during the cruise phase, the co-pilot was alone in the cockpit. He then intentionally modified the autopilot instructions to order the aeroplane to descend until it collided with the terrain. He did not open the cockpit door during the descent, despite requests for access made via the keypad, the cabin interphone and knocks on the door.

The Safety Investigation is ongoing, based in particular on a detailed analysis of information on the flight crew, as well as on information from the flight recorders and radio communications.

The investigation will also study the systemic failings that may have led to this accident or to similar events, with two main investigative orientations:

Medical aspects: the investigation will seek to understand the current balance between medical confidentiality and flight safety. It will specifically aim to explain how and why pilots can be in a cockpit with the intention of causing the loss of the aircraft and its occupants, despite the existence of:

• regulations setting mandatory medical criteria for flight crews, especially in the areas of psychiatry, psychology and behavioural problems;
• recruitment policies, as well as the initial and recurrent training processes within airlines.

Cockpit security: the investigation will seek to understand the compromises that were made between the requirements of security, specifically those that followed the attacks on 11 September 2001, and the requirements of flight safety. In this context, the investigation will include a focus on cockpit door locking systems and cockpit access and exit procedures.

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1992年的1124空难和本次空难几乎是100%的复制：

机型同样为波音737系列：1124空难是737-300，5735航班是B737-800NG；

机组情况都是正常的，飞行员都是老飞行员，乘务组也是一切正常；

同样坠毁在广西：1124空难发生在阳朔，123空难发生在梧州；

同样都是最后时刻俯冲撞击地面，所有乘员无一生还。

阳朔空难最令人痛心的是机上不仅没有一人生还，而且现场也没有一具全尸。据当时参加救援的人称“当救援组登到山顶时的景象，可能是这辈子不会忘记的，漫山遍野全是碎的尸块，连下脚的地方都没有”，而后来也有媒体记者爆料称当时飞机解体发生爆炸之后，飞机上所有人都用“粉身碎骨”这个词来形容，毫不夸张。

“4月7日，东航通知家属去领残骸，并在梧州殡仪馆为每个遇难者举行简单的告别仪式。供人悼念的棺材缩成了一个长方形的盒子，内里铺着鲜花。仪式结束，周有保提出“看一看遗骸”。三小包20公分长、15公分宽冰过的自封袋里，装着混合着黑土和叶子的泥状物。“拎起来，看不到任何人体组织。”火化后，用刷子扫出四小段如大拇指般长宽的骨头。骨头连着泥土放进骨灰盒，一起带回了家。”引用自在人间｜东航MU5735失事后，“平安扣”女孩家属的三个愿望

同样都是黑匣子严重损毁；

其中1124空难的调查结果是：事故是在飞机下降过程中出现右发油门不能随动，导致左、右发动机推力不平衡，飞机向右滚转时，在右发自动油门故障后的一分多钟，而机组没有及时采取措施，贻误了时机。在飞机右坡度已经46°时，本应向左修正，而机组却突然向右操纵驾驶盘。因此，加速了飞机向右滚转，以致撞山失事，这便是1992年阳朔空难真相。

感觉还是机械故障多一点吧，我学船舶的，工作后是助理工程师和公司安全经理，再加流体力学还是学过点皮毛的

我问评论区几个大聪明一句话，如果是机长决定让无辜的人为自己陪葬，为什么不去路上的大城市，小县城甚至是附近的村子冲撞？