The evolution of expert communities
专家社区的演变
2023年11月12日
https://lcamtuf.substack.com/p/the-evolution-of-expert-communities
一个国外博主的文章，总结了他认为的专家类型的社区所必然经历的五个阶段。
你会发现，知乎，贴吧，某些论坛，以及更早的天涯，基本都符合这其中的某几个，甚至全部。
（大 B 吧几乎就是按照这个剧本走完的。）
Much has been written about the usual evolution of general-interest online communities. Less attention has been paid to the dynamics of more specialized, expert-led forums — and the unique if ultimately destructive role of expertise.
关于普通兴趣网络社区的通常演变，已经有很多论述。人们较少关注更加专业化、由专家主导的论坛的动态，以及专业知识的独特作用——破坏性的那种。
Over the past 25 years, I participated in dozens of such groups. The forums ranged from 200 to 200,000 members, have been hosted on a variety of platforms, and have dealt with topics ranging from electronic circuit design, to emergency preparedness, to collectible antiques. In almost every instance, they followed the same trajectory — so today, I’d like to put forward a general lifecycle model for expert-led communities.
在过去的 25 年里，我参加了几十个这样的群组。这些论坛的成员人数从 200 到 20 万不等，主办平台多种多样，涉及的主题从电子电路设计到应急准备，再到古董收藏，不一而足。几乎每一次，它们都遵循着相同的轨迹--所以今天，我想为专家主导的社区提出一个通用的生命周期模型。
Stage 1: orderly growth 第 1 阶段：有序增长
Most online communities begin the same way: as an offshoot of another, less specialized online group, or as an ad-hoc forum for local hobbyists.
大多数在线社区都是以同样的方式开始的：作为另一个专业性较弱的在线小组的分支，或者作为当地爱好者的临时论坛。
At the first stage of growth, this new community is defined mainly by the hunger for knowledge. Its members are excited to compare notes and share what they learn. There is no well-defined pecking order and there are no stupid questions; all newcomers are greeted with open arms and patiently tutored along the way.
在成长的第一阶段，这个新社区的主要特征是对知识的渴求。成员们兴致勃勃地相互切磋，分享所学。这里没有明确的等级制度，也没有愚蠢的问题；所有新来者都张开双臂欢迎，并在学习过程中得到耐心指导。
Within the first couple of months, the group’s epistemological consensus begins to emerge, often dictated by the group’s most active or most knowledgeable participants. The consensus defines the correct way to learn the craft, outlines a set of technology preferences, and perhaps demands loyalty to specific brands. At this point, dissenting views begin to be marginalized, although usually in a subtle and jovial way.
在最初的几个月里，小组的认识论共识开始形成，通常由小组中最活跃或知识最渊博的参与者主导。这种共识确定了学习技术的正确方法，勾勒出一套技术偏好，或许还要求对特定品牌的忠诚度。此时，不同意见开始被边缘化，尽管通常是以一种微妙而欢快的方式。
Stage 2: the deluge 第二阶段：增长
Successful online communities usually don’t plateau at stage 1. Instead, the group eventually reaches a threshold of visibility that triggers a prolonged period of explosive growth. The exposure can happen organically or can be triggered by external events; for example, the /r/preppers community on Reddit quintupled in size in the wake of COVID-19.
成功的网络社区通常不会在第一阶段就停滞不前。相反，群体最终会达到一个能见度阈值，从而引发长时间的爆发式增长。这种曝光可能是有机发生的，也可能是由外部事件引发的；例如，在 COVID-19 事件之后，Reddit 上的 /r/preppers （生存狂）社区规模扩大了五倍。
The uncontrolled growth is initially welcomed, but it soon becomes a liability: the never-ending stream of repetitive beginner questions wears down the core contributors to the group. Some leave; others inevitably pen diatribes decrying the decline in discussion quality and calling for a new set of norms.
这种无节制的增长起初受到欢迎，但很快就变成了一种负担：永无休止的重复性新手问题让小组的核心贡献者疲惫不堪。一些人离开了，另一些人则不可避免地撰文抨击讨论质量的下降，并呼吁制定一套新的规范。
Stage 3: the crackdowns 第三阶段：镇压
The next stage begins with the development of elaborate rules meant to restore order in the community. To further this goal, seasoned members develop lengthy FAQs and create strict, multi-page posting guidelines.
下一阶段开始制定详尽的规则，以恢复社区秩序。为了实现这一目标，经验丰富的成员会制定冗长的常见问题解答，并制定严格的多页发帖指南。
These good-faith measures usually fail. Many newcomers are disinclined to scroll through pages of fine print; others find the canned answers unsatisfying or hard to parse. Core members of the forum usually take such defiance as a slight. So begins the period of “noob sniping:” the ridiculing and summary punishment of good-faith participants who do not follow the protocol. The tone shifts palatably; gatekeeping, snide remarks, and permanent bans for minor offenses become commonplace.
这些善意的措施通常都会失败。许多新来者不愿意翻阅几页细小的文字；还有一些人认为模板式的答案不令人满意或难以理解。论坛的核心成员通常会把这种蔑视视为一种轻视。于是，"新手狙击 "时期开始了：对不遵守协议的善意参与者进行嘲笑和简易惩罚。论坛的基调发生了可喜的变化；把关、冷嘲热讽以及对轻微违规行为的永久封禁变得司空见惯。
Under siege, key members of the forum close ranks. The tolerance for dissent decreases; those with a different vision for the group are driven away. Schisms and purges within the administrator community commonly happen at this point, too.
在重重包围之下，论坛的主要成员都靠拢在一起。对不同意见的容忍度降低；对团体有不同看法的人被赶走。管理员社区内部的分裂和清洗也通常发生在这个时候。
Stage 4: the meme slope第 4 阶段：玩梗狂潮
The crackdowns usually succeed in stemming the flow of inexperienced participants — but they also deal a fatal blow to meaningful growth. The reduction in noise soon exposes an uncomfortable truth: several years in, there are relatively few important topics left for the core participants to discuss. Industry headlines and product announcements provide momentary relief, but aren’t enough to give a sense of purpose to the group.
打击通常能成功阻止缺乏经验的参与者的流入，但也会对有意义的发展造成致命打击。噪音的减少很快就会暴露出一个令人不安的事实：几年下来，可供核心参与者讨论的重要话题已所剩无几。行业头条新闻和产品公告能缓解一时的压力，但却不足以让团队产生目标感。
In response to the continued attrition of long-time members, the community begins to lean more heavily on esoteric tangents, meta discussions, and insider humor — sometimes of the offensive variety. The phenomenon can be thought of as trying to save a marriage by spicing things up.
为了应对长期会员的不断流失，社区开始更多地采用深奥的切入点、元讨论和内部黑话--有时是冒犯性的。这种现象可以被视为试图通过调情来挽救婚姻。
Stage 5: the terminal plateau第 5 阶段：终端高原
Eventually, the forum reaches its end state. Stuck on a now-outmoded platform, it is no longer a natural destination for those seeking expert advice. Most of the less committed participants drop out, leaving a small core team of folks who have known each other for a decade or more.
最终，论坛走到了尽头。由于被困在一个已经过时的平台上，它不再是那些寻求专家建议的人的自然目的地。大多数不那么尽心尽力的参与者退出了论坛，只剩下一个由相识十年或更久的人组成的小核心团队。
Off-topic banter takes center stage: the most active threads deal with politics, health issues, divorces, and deaths. When on-topic conversations happen, they usually revolve around the supposed ignorance of the new breed of experts and the superiority of the old way of doing things.
离题戏谑占据了中心位置：最活跃的主题涉及政治、健康问题、离婚和死亡。当主题对话发生时，它们通常围绕着所谓的新一代专家的无知和旧有做事方式的优越性展开。
I dread to call it a decline: it’s a metamorphosis that reflects the shifting priorities of the members of the community — and naturally makes room for new communities to thrive.
我不敢说这是一种衰落：这是一种蜕变，它反映了社区成员工作重点的变化--自然也为新社区的蓬勃发展腾出了空间。