国外是怎么评价歼20的?
- 5197 个点赞 👍
美国空军空战司令部司令上将马克·凯利 大多数答案都是抖机灵的,我说点美空军干货,歼-20行不行的标准主要看灯塔怎么应对!
美国空军协会2021年度空天网研讨会,美国空军空战司令部上将司令马克·凯利在“战斗机路线图”的主题演讲上说,中国是具备第六代空中优势的国家,必须淘汰F-22,保留F-35,因为对中国没用的飞机要淘汰,进不了体系的飞机要淘汰。(美国空军部长行动很快,2022年的国防预算已经明确,淘汰33架F-22)
美空军高层的意见很一致,那就是美国现有飞机,都是冷战时期针对欧洲战场设计的,都是为了与苏联作战的。对目前中国的“反介入/区域拒止”威胁没有用。
凯利说,“冷酷无情的现实”是,美国空军在30年前为击败一个同行对手——俄罗斯做了极好的准备和训练,然后在伊拉克取得了高度一边倒的胜利。但在过去的20年里,美国空军在一个没有考验部队的“宽松环境”中进行了战斗优化。在同一时期,中国完全专注于“高端战斗,和我们战斗”。
凯利说,中国是“顶级匹敌对手”,在电磁频谱作战方面拥有巨大的能力,美国空军可能会在这样的战斗中失败。这张中国地图缺的不是一星半点, 说实话,看到这,让我想起了局座说的,美国看似强大,但打的都是不对称战争,这些战争的经验没法用在体量实力相当的对手身上,甚至可能犯经验主义错误。局座威武!
凯利还直截了当地说,用四代机或者五代机对阵拥有第六代空中优势的国家,无异于拿着刺刀进行枪战。
美空军作了估算,中国的部队结构和系统“在战斗的前30个小时内(对美军)所造成的伤亡比我们过去30年在中东地区所承受的还要多”。随着空军库存的老化和减少,平衡更加向中国倾斜。
凯利说,俄罗斯能够吞并克里米亚,而中国“不费一枪一弹”就声称拥有南海的部分领土,因为由于对手的防空系统,美国想争夺这些局势变得更加困难。
美军在卖惨,1961至2021年,战机数量下降47%,战机寿命上升509%,警惕性下降37%,全球威胁上升3个等级 其实,题主问出这个问题就已经说明对现代战争的理解滞后了,而且是代差的滞后,现在不是平台对平台的战争,是信息体系对信息体系的战争。所以别拿F-22跟歼-20比了,要比也是F-35。
为什么要淘汰F-22,保留F-35?协会里阐述过,因为F-22是上世纪八九十年代的产物,还是以平台为中心的技术架构,与其他四代机没发用数据链直接互通,是个信息孤岛。
所以,F-22融不进信息体系,坚决淘汰。
我记得有个问题问,1艘055大驱穿越到甲午海战,中国能赢吗?答案是必然的。同样,我觉得,如果美国坚持用F-22,未来中国台海能赢吗?答案是必然的。
平伦区童鞋的问题很好,他说“然而人家现在就在南海军演——堵在家门口耀武扬威,然后你在门里边挥舞着小拳拳大喊:我超凶的嘤嘤嘤”
这其实可以专开一个问题问了,我姑且回答一下。
美国把中国作为最大竞争对手已经是公开的事了,在南海问题上,美国的策略是“切香肠”战术,也叫渐进式战术或车轮战术,就是不断积累量变因素,同时又不突破底线,目的在于等待时机形成质变。
这个战术是希特勒提出的,在1936年到1939年之间,希特勒对于这种方法曾经作过锋芒毕露的表演。苏联也曾作过几次尝试,获得了不同的成功(例如捷克斯洛伐克、朝鲜)。以色列人在西奈半岛上所打的各次战役,也属于这同一类型,不过却只具有防御性的目标。
所以,除非中美形势出现重大逆转,只要美国还有战略优势,这种周边挑衅的极限施压战法就会一直持续下去!
美军称我们有一整个产业系统服务空军
评论区有人问:你说的这些东西,尤其是航电,安装在F-22不是也能做到么?还要F-35做什么?!最关键的答案是:目前很多可以轻松安装在F-35上面的设备,恐怕却很难安装在F-22上面——除去尺寸超过F-22头锥容限的雷达不说,很多增加的电子设备在F-35这种改进型五代机上,但放到F-22上就要纳入已经无法更改的燃油热汇液冷系统综合计算!要知道,同代技术设备功率更高,那么发热一定更大——当前状态的F-22已经面临电子系统积热问题,除非未来航空电子技术大幅进步,否则实在没办法再容纳这些设备了!此外,由于F-22内埋空间有限,一些新式武器无法使用,典型的是今年6月新合同内埋式防区内攻击武器(SIAW,一颗200万刀),这个新空地导弹把科技点全加在速度上,拦截难度更大,号称进一步塑造“反介入/区域拒止”环境。
美军提出2030年前,从现在的7型战斗机转变为5型,提出未来战斗机部队的“四加一”概念:改进的F-22,在2030年左右向下一代空中优势(NGAD)进行“快速移交”;F-35作为机队的“基石”;F-15E和F-15EX作为“大武器”载体;F-16提供能力,特别是在低端冲突中;以及A-10作为“加一”,拥有218架A-10的机队,在2030年代早期彻底退役前进行近距离空中支援。
下一代战斗机叫空中优势(NGAD),主要是取代F-22,在美军空战司令部战斗机关键需求清单上名列前茅;其次是F-35,它“必须拥有”技术更新3升级( Tech Refresh 3)和Block 4改进套件;F-15E和F-15EX提供了近期的能力,但必须有重要的电子战升级;F-16也通过提供能力来“应对风险”,它也必须有电子战方面的改进。
编辑于 2022-06-21 16:54・IP 属地北京查看全文>>
嘉树 - 661 个点赞 👍
查看全文>>
斡我现在 - 599 个点赞 👍
查看全文>>
石二郎 - 501 个点赞 👍
在白皮的外网爬过高楼,也去过小巴军事网站,老外的看法总的来说还是屁股决定脑袋。小巴等友好国家的军迷对歼20那是一片叫好,西方多数军迷的看法则不忍直视,不过随着歼20切香肠式表演的日趋开放,白皮的评价也有所提高。
讲真,小巴等对歼20的评价令我都有点脸红,高隐身高机动,航程五六千、超巡M2,先进航电+漂亮十五射程300+,吊打娘娘不在话下,发动机也完全不叫事儿,尤其在某些南美的网友眼中推翻美帝解放世界俨然就靠歼20了。看他们的帖子的主要目的当然不是参考其技术观点,而是欣赏他们对华的友好和热情。
西方白皮受媒体政治正确的影响,对歼20的主流评价是比较反智的,即便一些非军迷也急于表示歼20发动机不行,鸭翼影响隐身,好显得自己比较专业。歼20收费于11年,但多数白皮军迷一直认为歼20是截击机,“机身过长不适合机动空战”,“人操火箭只能拦截轰炸机,碰到战斗机就完蛋”,直到18年。这年白皮军坛发了篇重磅文章,其“中心思想”是歼20是空优战机,这是白皮主流军迷第一次正确定性歼20,当属启蒙著作,它的诞生预示着白皮军迷对歼20的认知蒙昧时代的终结。天朝军迷在收费第一天就知道歼20是制空战机,否则它上面搞那么多涡流干嘛?但该问题硬是困扰白皮军迷达七年之久,要让天朝军迷不油然而生智商优越感几乎不可能。
当然,以上说的只是西方主流军迷,并非全部。白皮也有聪明人,有少数白皮军迷多年一直关注跟踪歼20的发展,基本歼20在国内有什么风吹草动他们都知道,所以他们对歼20的评价是比较客观的,就跟咱们对F22的评价差不多吧。
发布于 2023-01-06 05:15・IP 属地广东查看全文>>
颓废老头 - 206 个点赞 👍
查看全文>>
暴躁的巨锤 - 91 个点赞 👍
一个美国方面的评价
Whether J20 is 5th generation?
A short answer,yes with an if;A long answer,no with a but;
Essentially, what you've got to understand about 5th generation, so-called, I mean of course 5th generation is a marketing term come up by Lockheed Martin to destroy the competition very effectively, but it's a useful shorthand.
What one has to understand about what we think of this 5th generation aircraft, could essentially be the F22 and now the F35 as well, is that it's not just stealth. You don't have to be difficult to detect physically, although that's a huge part of it, but to be VLO(very low observable). To be VLO or to be considered as VLO, you definitely need to have what's called all aspect stealth, so you need to be difficult to be detected in the fire control band that radars tend to use, such as X and Ku normally.
Things like F22, F35 are overwhelmingly optimized to defeat radar in the X and Ku band. You have to be shaped to do that in all aspects, so viewed from any angle obviously you still have a best kind of angle against the threat. They need to be shaping all around to be VLO. But much more to the point, you also need to be able to do your work of building a situational awareness picture of the battle space around you and launching weapon effectively without giving yourself away to passive sensors by your own emission.
What we know about the J20 is that from the outside, it is probably classified as LO but not VLO. It is LO from the front. It is not nearly as low observable as F22 or F35. But it's not really designed to be (that way). If you really care about it's frontal radar cross-section, you don't put canards on you aeroplane, those forward control surfaces. Because like J20, indeed the typhoon and the rafale(应该是个飞机名,不了解随便拼的), you can have software which kind of tries to within the demands of what you're doing flying wise keep the canard movements minimize radar returns. It's still a radar return enhancing feature and you can't get away from that.
The reason they've done it is they want something big enough to contain a large internal fuel load and long range air-to-air missiles, specifically the PL15 which is a big missile and they can carry four of them internally now. How to be sufficiently agile and potentially having sufficient short field performance under this case? They need extra control moment that canards can give you.
Makes the long story short, what J20 gives China is a fighter which is low observable enough that will be very difficult to detect against the back ground chaos and noise of any large-scale clash between China and either one of its regional allies(应该是口误,想说enemies) or with united states, where there will be hundreds of aircraft sorties and thousands of missile tracks, huge amount of electronic warfare going on both side, potentially physical attacks but certainly network and other non-kinetic attacks on satellite communication, imaging and surveillance systems. In that context, J20 is probably low observable enough to kind of difficult to detect and track. It's got enough range particularly because it can carry up to 4 external fuel tanks which it can then jettison to improve the stealth. With that range it can fly a long way out from the Chinese mainland and then approach the key target which are the US air base at Guam or anything on the first island chain in a-wax(不知道是什么,随便拼的) and tank orbits. A-wax and tank orbits are what makes western air power and specifically US air power work. J20 is perfect for hunting these.
It's got very long missiles comparatively speaking. It's got a radar which, even if it can't currently, will be developed into something that has proper LPI(low probability of intercept) and LPD(low probability of detection) capabilities. It's a big acer array. We don't know how well it works, but they will keep improving it. It can approach from unexpected direction with a lot of range and it's hard to see. It's dangerous now and it's much more dangerous from US point of view in terms of where it will be in 10 years.
查看全文>>
松珑子