小摩的研报，目前的ai资本开支如果到2030年要有10%的回报的话，相当于全球每个iPhone用户每月要花34刀，或者每个网飞用户每月180刀。每月34刀什么概念，等于每年快2900人民币，等于最新一代iPhone pro第一年的贬值速度，等于相当于全世界所有苹果用户体量的消费者，用年年换新顶配iPhone的钱给ai公司交会员费，才能让目前的投资有像样的回报。正常的LLM邪教徒我看也不敢在C端有此等狂想，那就只能看B端能不能救回来了。
Big picture, to drive a 10% return on our modeled AI investments through 2030 would require ~$650 billion of annual revenue into perpetuity, which is an astonishingly large number. But for context, that equates to 58bp of global GDP, or $34.72/month from every current iPhone user, or $180/month from every Netflix subscriber. How that is apportioned between corporations, governments and consumers is, of course, a long-term debate. Regardless, even if everything works, there will be (continued) spectacular winners, and probably some equally spectacular losers as well given the amount of capital involved and winner takes all nature of portions of the AI ecosystem.
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