前言：谈判谈了个寂寞。
美、以、法国、德国、英国和欧盟代表要求伊朗接受零度铀浓缩水平，限制其弹道导弹计划，并停止对其代理部队的支持。
而伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格里拒绝了欧洲恢复谈判的呼吁，并重申伊朗只有在以色列结束空中战役后才会进行谈判。
那就继续打呗
Iran Update Special Report, June 20, 2025, Evening Edition
伊朗更新特别报告，2025 年 6 月 20 日，晚间版
Jun 20, 2025 - ISW Press
2025 年 6 月 20 日 - ISW 出版社
Johanna Moore, Carolyn Moorman, Avery Borens, Ben Rezaei, Nidal Morrison, and Brian Carter
约翰娜·摩尔，卡罗琳·莫尔曼，艾弗里·博伦斯，本·雷扎伊，尼达尔·莫里森和布莱恩·卡特
Information Cutoff: 5:00 PM ET
信息截止时间：东部时间下午 5 点
The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) are publishing multiple updates daily to provide analysis on the war with Iran. The morning update will focus on the exchange of fire between Iran and Israel. The evening update will be more comprehensive, covering events over the past 24-hour period and refining items discussed in the morning update.
美国企业研究所（AEI）的危机威胁项目（CTP）和战争研究学院（ISW）每天发布多次更新，以对与伊朗的战争进行分析。晨间更新将聚焦于伊朗与以色列之间的交火。晚间更新将更加全面，涵盖过去 24 小时内发生的事件，并完善晨间更新中讨论的内容。
Iran is attempting to impose a dilemma on the United States and the international community: accept Iranian terms in nuclear negotiations or risk a long and challenging hunt for hidden Iranian nuclear material. This dilemma is likely designed to harden Iran’s nuclear program against destruction either by securing an agreement on Iranian terms (which would presumably allow Iran to continue enrichment) or protecting Iranian nuclear material by hiding the material, thus making a US or Israeli effort to destroy the material more difficult.
伊朗正试图向美国和国际社会施加一个困境：接受伊朗在核谈判中的条件，或者面临漫长而艰巨的搜寻伊朗隐藏核材料的行动。这个困境很可能旨在使伊朗的核计划更难被摧毁，无论是通过达成伊朗条件下的协议（这或许将允许伊朗继续浓缩），还是通过隐藏材料来保护伊朗核材料，从而使美国或以色列摧毁材料的行动更加困难。
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Mohsen Rezaei stated during an interview on June 20 that Iran has relocated its enriched material to a secure location to prevent it from being destroyed.[1] This statement is presumably intended to suggest to a Western audience that destroying all of Iran’s nuclear material would require a long, challenging, and possibly futile hunt for hidden material and that, therefore, the West should negotiate with Iran. Iranian officials have expressed their interest in negotiating a nuclear deal with the United States, but have not moderated their negotiating position from before the conflict.[2]
伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）上将莫赫森·雷扎伊在 6 月 20 日的采访中表示，伊朗已将其浓缩材料转移到安全地点，以防止其被摧毁。[1]这一声明或许意在向西方受众暗示，摧毁伊朗所有核材料将需要漫长、艰巨且可能徒劳地搜寻隐藏材料的行动，因此西方应该与伊朗谈判。伊朗官员已表达他们与美国就核问题达成协议的兴趣，但并未调整冲突前的谈判立场。[2]
Iran remains committed to preserving its stated “right” to enrich uranium.[3] These Iranian demands over enrichment have been a non-starter for the United States and Israel in the ongoing negotiations, suggesting Rezaei’s statement is designed to increase the pressure on the United States and Israel to relax their positions. The United States and Israel have rejected Iranian demands and maintained that Iran will not be permitted to enrich uranium on Iranian soil.[4] Israel launched its air campaign on June 12 to “degrade, destroy, and remove [the] threat” of Iranian weaponization of its nuclear program, and a senior Israeli official said that enrichment remains a red line.[5] US President Donald Trump has threatened to support an air campaign targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure if Iran fails to meet US demands for zero enrichment.[6]
伊朗仍然坚持维护其声称的“权利”来 enrich uranium。[3] 这些伊朗关于 enrich 的要求在正在进行的谈判中一直不被美国和以色列接受，这表明 Rezaei 的声明旨在向美国和以色列施压，要求他们放松立场。美国和以色列已经拒绝了伊朗的要求，并坚持认为伊朗不得在其领土上 enrich uranium。[4] 以色列于 6 月 12 日发动了空中战役，以“削弱、摧毁和消除 [伊朗] 核武器化的威胁”，一位以色列高级官员表示，enrich 仍然是一条红线。[5] 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁称，如果伊朗不能满足美国关于零 enrich 的要求，他将支持针对伊朗核设施的空中战役。[6]
European partners, alongside the United States, have demanded that Iran accept zero uranium enrichment levels, restrict its ballistic missile program, and end its support for its proxy forces.[7] French, German, British, and European Union representatives met with Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi in Switzerland on June 20 to urge Iran to return to nuclear negotiations with the United States.[8] Araghchi rejected European calls to resume negotiations and reiterated that Iran will not negotiate until Israel ends its air campaign.[9] US White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated on June 19 that Trump will decide whether or not to strike Iran “within the next two weeks.”[10] An anonymous European diplomat speaking to the Washington Post stated that the delegation hoped to reconvene before the end of Trump’s two-week deadline.[11]
欧洲伙伴连同美国要求伊朗接受零度铀浓缩水平，限制其弹道导弹计划，并停止对其代理部队的支持。[7]法国、德国、英国和欧盟代表于 6 月 20 日在瑞士与伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格里会面，敦促伊朗与美国恢复核谈判。[8]阿拉格里拒绝了欧洲恢复谈判的呼吁，并重申伊朗只有在以色列结束空中战役后才会进行谈判。[9]美国白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·利维特于 6 月 19 日表示，特朗普将在未来两周内决定是否打击伊朗。[10]一位向《华盛顿邮报》匿名发言的欧洲外交官表示，代表团希望在特朗普两周期限结束前重开谈判。[11]
An unspecified US official speaking to Fox News reported that the USS Nimitz carrier strike group is expected to arrive in the CENTCOM area of responsibility by June 22.[12] A US official told Western media on June 16 that the USS Nimitz carrier strike group is en route to the Middle East from the South China Sea and that it is ahead of schedule.[13] The USS Nimitz carrier strike group, which includes the Nimitz and its air wing, multiple destroyers, and other assets, can support both offensive and defensive contingencies.[14] The United States has also deployed additional assets to support potential operations in the Middle East. There are five guided missile destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean as of June 20, according to US defense officials.[15] The destroyers can provide much-needed ballistic missile defense support for Israel. A large number of US aircraft have similarly traveled into the Middle East.[16] Six US Air Force air-to-air refuelers also moved westward from bases in California and Oklahoma to Honolulu, Hawaii, and Travis Air Force Base, California, respectively, since June 19.[17]
一位未指明的美国官员在接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，尼米兹号航母打击群预计将于 6 月 22 日抵达中央司令部负责区域。[12]一位美国官员于 6 月 16 日告诉西方媒体，尼米兹号航母打击群正从南海前往中东，并且进度提前。[13]尼米兹号航母打击群包括尼米兹号及其空军联队、多艘驱逐舰和其他资产，能够支持进攻和防御等多种情况。[14]美国还部署了更多资产以支持潜在的中东行动。据美国防务官员透露，截至 6 月 20 日，东地中海有五艘导弹驱逐舰。[15]这些驱逐舰可以为以色列提供急需的弹道导弹防御支持。大量美国飞机也飞往中东。[16]自 6 月 19 日起，六架美国空军空中加油机分别从加利福尼亚州和俄克拉荷马州的基地向西移动至夏威夷州檀香山和加利福尼亚州特拉维斯空军基地。[17]