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如何看待4.22特朗普承认对华关税过高,将降低关税?

klee前来报到
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公开场合的讲话内容是这样的:

I'm not going to mention covid, I'm not going to say, "Oh, I'm going to play hard ball with China." No, no, we're going to be very nice. Gemfield's going to be very nice and we'll see what happens. But ultimately, they have to make a deal because otherwise they're not going to be able to deal in the U.S.. So, we want them involved, but they have to and other countries have to make a deal. And if they don't make a deal, we'll set the deal because we're the ones that set the deal.
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That's true. 145% is very high and it won't be that high. It's not going to be that high. Uh it got up to there. We were talking about fentanyl where you know various elements built it up to 145. No, it won't be anywhere near that high. It'll come down substantially, but it won't be zero. Used to be zero. We were just destroyed. China was taking us for a ride and it's not going to happen. We're going to be very good to China, but they would make billions and billions and billions of dollars a year and they would build their military out of the United States. So that won't happen. And I think we're going to live together very happily and ideally work together. So I think it's going to work out very well. But no, it's at 145%, there will not be anywhere near that number.
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And I think we'll make a deal with China. If we don't make a deal, we'll set it. We'll just set the number and you know, I think they'll want to be a part of......

当关税设定在100%以上的量级时,两国之间的常规贸易也在脱钩。与此同时,观察这场实验的进展也很有趣。比方说,当未来台海风急浪高时,同样的制裁措施,在中美两国各会引起什么连锁反应,有助于两国提前做好预判。

这场实验我观察到现在,整体上中国在人民忍耐力方面、GJD入市、信息一致性这几个维度上有超老美的优势。川普在资本市场大幅下跌后,就有点着急了,多次喊话资本市场。我之前说过,资本市场是川普的第一波压力,第三波压力也就是终极压力是民意(这个需要三个月的时间慢慢呈现效果)。

后续再谨慎乐观的继续观察这场实验(说乐观是因为事件再继续升级的概率已经比较小了),如果中美达成了deal,抄底的资产升值,赢;如果中美达不成deal,大概率会助推咱们这边进行某些维度的改革,这也是我希望看到的,还是赢。

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Gemfield
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